Is Jalen Hurts the Most Valuable Player?
Examining the case.
The Eagles destroyed the Giants 38-7. It was one of those games where you could have overlooked how great the Eagles offense looked because they were making it look so easy, you just kind of think, “Oh, they are playing the Giants, a team with a bottom five defense in EPA/play and a negative point differential. Of course, they should be stomping them.”
The Eagles offensive line produced huge running lanes, and Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell both ran for 90+ yards. Adding in Boston Scott, all three Eagles running backs averaged over 5.0 yards per carry.
Jalen Hurts looked good, too, but he didn’t have to throw the ball much. He completed 16-of-24 passes for 2 touchdowns and no picks and ran for 34 yards and a touchdown.
Jalen is helped, no doubt, by having the #1 offensive line, per PFF, in the league protecting him and a great receiving corps, but he’s not the only MVP candidate surrounded by ballers. The Chiefs O-line ranks #4. Josh Allen (#23) and Joe Burrow (#28) are the elite QBs who have to struggle the most to survive.
Hurts also has elite receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. He has a better tight end to throw to than do Burrow or Allen, and his running backs are pretty good. (Running backs are the chalkiest position in there. It is fair to say none of the teams have elite running backs.)
The Eagles are the best—or very close to being the best—at every position group surrounding their quarterback on offense.
This isn’t to say Hurts is not extremely important to his team’s offense. The Eagles played two games without him and lost both. In the Cowboys game, they still scored points, but Gardner Minshew threw two interceptions and was unable to complete a potential game-winning drive. The next week, the Eagles lost 10-20 to the Saints, and Minshew threw a pick-six.
Looking at the Eagles’ yards per point (lower is better/more efficient), you can see the spike where Hurts missed two games. With Minshew, the Eagles averaged 22.15 yards per point. With Hurts, they averaged 13.98.
It sounds like it should be obvious: a team will play worse without its elite starting QB. But some pundits are just going crazy denying Hurt’s importance to the Eagles.
Hurts has shown improvement every single year. He raised his completion percentage to 66.5% from 52.0% his rookie year and 61.3% last year. His yards per attempt, TD percentage, and interception percentage numbers are also the best they’ve ever been. He has always been careful with the football. He has never thrown more than 9 picks in a year. This year, he only threw 6 interceptions, a rate of 1.3%.
Josh Allen’s interception rate is almost twice Hurts’. Hurt’s advantage at limiting interceptions and fumbles translates to almost 13 points over the course of a season, according to Kevin Cole’s (
) advanced QB efficiency numbers. Amongst MVP contenders, only Burrow is better.Cole’s numbers also quantify how Hurts benefits from his supporting cast: His wide receivers account for 18.2 extra points on his traditional EPA figure, second only behind Tua Tagovailoa’s WRs, and 1.7 points more than Burrow’s WRs; the Eagles’ offensive line adds 10.2 extra points with its superior blocking. But Hurts is hurt relative to the others with a less QB-favorable scheme.
Ultimately, I don’t think Hurts is quite as valuable to his team as Mahomes or Allen are to their teams. The Eagles have the most complete team, the results of successful player acquisitions.
Mahomes being able to lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns, while setting a career high in completion percentage, after losing Tyreek Hill may be the most impressive feat amongst the four. It seems like he is always in the conversation, but Mahomes has only won one MVP award—in 2018—and its time he wins one again.
But let's not be like Chris Simms. Each of these guys are extremely valuable to their teams and would be a worthy award-winner.
Who do you think should win the NFL MVP award?