Early AFC Win Projections Picks
My picks are in for the 2023 NFL season. What do you think?
The sports books are out with their over/under lines for the 2023 NFL season. The first day of the draft is still 27 days away. The Aaron Rodgers trade hasn’t been completed yet. So a lot is up in the air.
But what the hell? That’s part of the fun about making predictions. Let’s jump into the AFC regular season win projections. I’ll leave the comments open for all so you can make your predictions in the comments and debate mine!
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5 Wins
The Chiefs won 14 games last season and won most of them decisively. They lost the sixth-most value in free agency, according to
‘s Improvement Index at . One of their big losses was offensive tackle Orlando Brown, but they replaced him with T Jawaan Taylor from Jacksonville, who is of similar value. I don’t think losing JuJu Smith-Schuster matters much; the Chiefs’ offense revolves around Mahomes and Reid. The AFC West plays an easy interconference schedule: the NFC North, with declining Packers and Vikings. The strength of schedule (based on 2022 win %) shows the Chiefs face the 16th-easiest schedule—easier even than the Broncos and Raiders. It should be a cinch for them to get to 12+ wins.Cincinnati Bengals: Over 11.5 Wins
The Bengals, coming off a 12-win season, had a relatively good offseason. They retained the 8th-most value of all playoff teams and the second-most of all conference championship teams. (Good teams should be expected to lose more value, because they have more to lose, and the salary cap prevents them from resigning too many good players.) The Bengals made moves at the right positions. They upgraded their offensive line again. PFF calls Orlando Brown one of the best value signings of 2023. And where they lost good players, like at safety (Jesse Bates and Vonn Bell), they had replacements (Dax Hill). They just added Irv Smith at tight end to replace Hayden Hurst. They do need to address running back, though, with Samaje Perine departing and Joe Mixon’s future uncertain.
Buffalo Bills: Under 10.5 Wins
The Bills (13 wins in 2022) remained even in free agency, losing value at linebacker (Tremaine Edmunds), replacing lost value at RB (Devin Singletary out, Damien Harris in), and adding WR3 depth (Trent Sherfield). They face a quite difficult schedule next year—the seventh-toughest in the league—as their division gets better at the same time that their division faces the AFC West and NFC East, two of the toughest divisions outside of the AFC East.
LA Chargers: Over 9.5 Wins
The Chargers (10 wins in 2022) are supposed to have a good roster and an elite young QB. They made big splashes in free agency last season (Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson) that didn’t quite pan out. They added net value this offseason (but made fewer splash moves). They also added Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator from Dallas. While he was Cowboys OC, Moore always presided over a top-5 scoring offense. He should be a big improvement over Joe Lombardi.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 9.5 Wins
The Jags didn’t do much in free agency, but they have Calvin Ridley coming back from suspension, Trevor Lawrence going into year three, and an easy schedule with AFC South intradivisional games and the AFC North and NFC South on tap.
Miami Dolphins: Under 9.5 Wins
A tough division and an unstable situation at QB and a tough out-of-division schedule (featuring the Chiefs, Chargers, Cowboys Eagles, and Ravens) causes Miami (9 wins in 2022) to disappoint.
NY Jets: Under 9.5 Wins
Aaron Rodgers led an above-average team to 8 wins last season. The 7-win Jets overperformed on defense and are still just above-average. They will win 8 or 9 games, again facing a tough schedule (as with the whole AFC East).
Baltimore Ravens: Under 8.5 Wins
Without Lamar Jackson at QB, the Ravens are a mediocre team playing ugly football.
Cleveland Browns: Under 8.5 Wins
Let’s hope Deshaun Watson continues to be as bad as he was last year. Even granting him some improvement, he will never play up to that contract.
Denver Broncos: Under 8.5 Wins
Taking over would mean expecting the Broncos to win 4 more games in 2023 than they did last season. Yes, they have coach Sean Payton. Yes, Russell Wilson might just be better because of random variation. But, 1.) Wilson is still old and washed up; if he plays like the 12th-best QB in the league, I wouldn’t be surprised, but that’s not enough to win 9 games in the AFC West. And 2.) if Wilson was bad in year 1 of a new system, he is in year 1 of a new system again.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins
The Steelers won 9 games in Kenny Pickett’s and George Pickens’ rookie year in a year T.J. Watt mixed half a dozen games.
NE Patriots: Under 7.5 Wins
They’re the worst team in the AFC East.
Tennessee Titans: Under 7.5 Wins
Remember? Who is on the Titans?
Vegas Raiders: Over 7.5 Wins
Jimmy G’s a winner.
Indianapolis Colts: Under 6.5 Wins
Rookie QB at No. 4 (Levis or Richardson) won’t be ready.
Houston Texans: Over 5.5 Wins
Solid free agency. Good coach hire (DeMeco Ryans, fmr SF DC). On the up. Rookie QB at No. 2 (Bryce Young) will be more NFL-ready than Indy’s QB.